Job Destruction, Human Extinction and Stephen Hawking's AI Doomsday Prophecy
The world lost one of its brightest and most intelligent minds
of the 21st century when renowned physicist
and cosmologist, Stephen Hawking, passed away on 14th March, 2018. While his death has
left a vacuum difficult to fill, he will continue to stay alive in the numerous
theories and beliefs he propounded during his lifetime of 76 years. Its time to
revisit one of his pertinent beliefs owing to its great relevance today, the
belief that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will lead to job destructions and may
ultimately replace humans.
One of the biggest debates today in scientific, industrial and
business communities as well as among world governments is AI’s implications
for them and the world at large. AI’s promises to revolutionize and bring
multiple benefits to both economy and society notwithstanding, the clamor
around its risks is continuing to grow louder. The voices of dissent gained all
the more credibility when Stephen Hawking chose to side with a potential
doomsday theory around AI.
Here are some of the views around AI that the renowned scientist
has expressed on multiple occasions.
In an interview to BBC in 2014:
“The development of full artificial intelligence could
spell the end of the human race."
"It would take off on its own, and re-design itself
at an ever increasing rate.”
"Humans, who are limited by slow biological
evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded."
At the launch of Centre for the Future of Intelligence in
2016:
"I believe there is no deep difference between what
can be achieved by a biological brain and what can be achieved by a computer.
It therefore follows that computers can, in theory, emulate human intelligence
— and exceed it."
That, he said, could lead to the eradication of disease
and poverty and the conquest of climate change. But it could also bring us all
sorts of things we didn't like - autonomous weapons, economic disruption and
machines that developed a will of their own, in conflict with humanity.
"In short, the rise of powerful AI will be either the
best, or the worst thing, ever to happen to humanity. We do not yet know
which."
In a Column in The Guardian:
“The automation of factories has already decimated jobs in
traditional manufacturing, and the rise of
artificial intelligence is likely to extend this job
destruction deep into the middle classes, with only the most caring, creative
or supervisory roles remaining.”
“This in turn will accelerate the already widening
economic inequality around the world. The internet and the platforms that it
makes possible allow very small
groups of individuals to make enormous profits while employing
very few people. This is inevitable, it is progress, but it is also
socially destructive.”
In an interview to Wired magazine in 2017:
“The genie is out of the bottle. We need to move forward
on artificial intelligence development but we also need to be mindful of its
very real dangers. I fear that AI may replace humans altogether. If people
design computer viruses, someone will design AI that replicates itself. This
will be a new form of life that will outperform humans.”
At Web Summit Technology Conference in 2017:
"Success in creating effective AI, could be the
biggest event in the history of our civilization. Or the worst. We just don't
know. So we cannot know if we will be infinitely helped by AI, or ignored by it
and side-lined, or conceivably destroyed by it," Hawking said during the
speech.
"Unless we learn how to prepare for, and avoid, the
potential risks, AI could be the worst event in the history of our
civilization. It brings dangers, like powerful autonomous weapons, or new ways
for the few to oppress the many. It could bring great disruption to our
economy."
"I am an optimist and I believe that we can create AI
for the good of the world. That it can work in harmony with us. We simply need
to be aware of the dangers, identify them, employ the best possible practice
and management, and prepare for its consequences well in advance,"
Though Hawking has fleetingly expressed hope over AI’s benefits
with proper management and governance, his AI doomsday prophecy is a warning
capable of coming true considering the continuous advancements in the
development of a truly intelligent AI that’s smart enough to think and do
better than human beings.
Interestingly Hawking, who was suffering from ALS, used a form
of AI and Machine Learning technology that learns how the professor thinks and
suggests the words he might want to use next. Ironically, the scientist was
wary of the very technology that allowed him to communicate.
(Image Courtesy: Biography.com)
